Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
